Greenwich Property Market

7 Nedley Ln

2011-03-11T18:55:00.011-05:00

Selected pix:

18 Bowman Drive Update - Sells at $1.41ml

2010-06-23T09:23:00.005-04:00

Back on June 16, 2009 I posted the note "18 Bowman Drive: Another Market Opportunity". The former owner contacted me and reminded me what a decent house this was.

As an update, the property sold for $1.41ml on March 26, 2010.

As I mentioned in my earlier note, this was new construction (in '07), with over 5k sqft per builder (4,291sqft per tax card) with +/- 1.39 acres usable land on back lot, but impacted by water tower and cemetery. The property can become a good home for someone. Plus for anyone driving into Westchester or the City, the location is great. It is less than 1 mile to the Merritt / Hutchinson Pkwy.

Greenwich Residential Market Review: Unit Volume 2000 - 2009

2010-02-07T07:39:00.015-05:00

The pinch, or returning to a more stable, well functioning real estate market.

I like the pinch!

A Glance: Single Family and Market Unit Volume Analysis, Half Year and 2Q

2009-07-01T00:51:00.045-04:00

Good news: properties sold and to contract in Q2 (April 1 - June 30) are not falling as fast as they have been since the start of the market correction.

Bad news: there was a significant and rapid increase in inventory in the second quarter of 2009 just as sales began to pick-up, or at least not fall as rapidly as they had since 2007.

Click on a chart to enlarge

Data source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service

Take My Breath Away - 9 Sales and 3 Contracts

2009-06-30T23:56:00.014-04:00

It may not seem like much, but the sales volume reported today nearly matches the monthly sales in each of December, January and February, which were 13, 9, and 10 respectively. Its been a long time since we've seen this amount of sales in one day.

After that moment of surprise, I looked at single family inventory that has come on the market since the beginning of the year and what has happened to it (see tables below). I'm trying to get some insight into the inventory build-up. The abundance and increasing amount of inventory combined with the sparse sale and contract volume indicates a deteriorating market and I would think continued price depreciation across the board. I'll look at the half year data in more detail over the next weeks and post accordingly.

Note: Data below the "Brought to Market" numbers relate specifically to sales, contracts, withdrawn, etc. of single family properties listed on or after January 1 or April 1 as the case may be.

Glenville T-Mobile Cell Towers

2009-06-28T12:14:00.004-04:00

Here's a public service announcement related to the proposed new cell towers in Glenville from a District 9 RTM and Pemberwick/Glenville Neighborhood Association member, and one who diligently works to mobilize the Western side of town to participate in public affairs.

*********************************************************
Neighbors,

My apologies for failing to include in the news blast yesterday the clearly understood concern about the T-Mobile proposal to install a "Cell Tower" (actually 2 antennas) in a potentially dangerous location in Glenville.

Glenville School PTA co-presidents Donna Curtis and Gina Furano have a good job of informing all residents of the concern that this installation is much too close to Glenville School. And Schools PTA Council President, Glenville resident Sue Rodgers has led the global charge against cellphone transmission installations in close proximity to any schools.

The point of this message is the same as for other concerns - Public input can make difference. Our citizen-based Town government provides opportunity for the public to be heard, and in fact, to guide decisions. Reportedly, the last two P&Z hearings on the Cell Town proposed near No. Mianus School produced SRO crowds, and the P&Z voted unanimously to recommend another location be sought for that one.

Unlike the No. Mianus proposal, the Glenville installation can actually be killed by a P&Z decision. However, P&Z has an obligation to consider the proposal fairly, so it is critical that they are faced again by a packed house. The public hearing is on the P&Z agenda for Tues. July 7, beginning at 7 pm.

Please attend if you can, and if you can't I will record email comments and pass them on to the P&Z.

[text removed by editor]

Pasted below for convenience is the "calendar" (including one date correction) for PGA Citizen input.

Great day :)

Vin

Glenville T-Mobile installation - P&Z Public Hearing, Tues. July 7, 7 pm - Town Hall Meeting Room

Variances for CVS/Bank/Office at Holly Hill Hole - PZBA Public Hearing, Weds. July 8, 8 pm - Town Hall Cone Room

Sale of Town land parcel along Holly Hill Hole - Board of Selectmen, Thurs. July 9, 10 am - Town Hall Meeting Room

Sneak Peak at Lolita Restaurant, Byram

2009-06-25T16:22:00.022-04:00

Here are some pictures of the soon to be opened Lolita, Cocina & Tequila Bar in Byram. This is one of the CB5 restaurant group's ventures; they run Baang Cafe locally. Jody Pennette, the group's chief executive, says it will be a trendy Mexican restaurant. I hope they manage to provide good food and value as well. We'll see.

The restaurant is in the space formerly occupied by That Little Italian Restaurant; its a good space with an offstreet brick patio. The painter I bumped into while taking these pictures said Lolita may open within a week.

Entry and dining area

Tequila Bar

Facade & Street View

It looks like the corridor from the corner of North Main and Mill Street in Port Chester along Delavan Avenue, Byram is becoming food alley: The Kneaded Bread, Mario Batali and Joe Bastianich's trattoria down the street at the Tarry Lodge and now Lolita.

I think the improvement of services along this corridor will help real estate values in Byram as the gentrification process continues.

15 North Crossway: Valuation Watch

2009-06-25T10:59:00.011-04:00

I'll watch this property to determine what has happened with property values in prime Old Greenwich waterfront locations.

The property was bought new in May 2004 for $3,925,000 and listed for sale today at $7,195,000 or 83% above last sale. At 5,334 sqft, according to the list sheet, the property sold at $736/sqft while the current ask is $1,349/sqft.

ht: forwhatitsworth for 2004 photo.

Foreclosure Watch: 46 Bowman Drive

2009-06-24T16:07:00.010-04:00

This property was forclosed upon in January 2009. The outstanding mortgage then was $688,000. The purchasor and current owner paid Washington Mutual Bank $860,000 for the property in February.

This history is indicative of what is happening throughout town though not captured in the GMLS database, by many agents or the local newspaper. As a sidebar kudos to Zillow and other sites that manage to capture this data and make it publicly available (I, on the other hand, rummaged through Town Hall records to find it). For a property buyer or seller this type of data is relevant for determing market value and useful for establishing list or offer pricing. I expect that a property appraiser would look at these distressed sales comps in determing an appraisal value to support Bank financing, so I figure a real estate agent should also.

This 4bedroom, 3 bath, 3,266sqft modified Cape was listed for $1.295mln in April '04 and went to contract less than a month later. The sale closed in July 2004 for $1.280 (see house as it was in 2004 to the left).

After upgrades which included a new septic, driveway, hardwood floors, Kitchen countertop and appliances, and new baths, according to the list sheet, the property was relisted in July 2007 for $2.475mln. The listing expired in October 2008 asking $1.495mln.

The party that purchased the property in 2004 secured a Pay-Option-ARM to finance the purchase. The loan principal was $1.15mln or 90% of purchase price. In this type of mortgage the borrow could roll the interest payment into the loan principal up to a cap, which in this case was 115% of the original principal or $1,322,500 before they had to start paying. The same party secured a Personal Line of Credit for $150,000. So no wonder the borrower didn't want to sell for less than $1,472,500 (the total of the Maximum principal plus the line of credit).

Salute to Veterans: June 27th, 11am

2009-06-24T12:20:00.004-04:00

Real Estate Agents Own 6% of SF Homes For Sale

2009-06-24T00:11:00.015-04:00

I have been wondering what amount of the real estate inventory for sale is owned by real estate agents. It turns out to be around 6% in Greenwich.

June 18th total single family inventory = 765;
Units owned by Agents = 44
Percent total owned by Agents = 5.75%

I wonder what would happen if 6% of the market adjusted its price to clear? How would that impact the rest of the market? But then there is no one motivating factor for the parts of that group.

In a future post, I'll check to see if RE Agent pricing on their own respective places differs in any substantial way from pricing in the rest of the market.

Picture of the Day: 4 Sherwood Farm Ln

2009-06-19T09:30:00.005-04:00

We have some very creative agents in town. Or what is fauvism when applied to residential real estate?

Welcome Back 2001: 126 Cat Rock

2009-06-19T09:03:00.008-04:00

This property sold new in June 2001 for $3.595mln. It closed today for $3.20mln after almost one year on the market. It was listed in July 2008 for $4.15mln.

I expect one of the reason this house did not sell for more is the proximity of the house on the back lot. In my experience any hair on a project will be discounted heavily in a declining market, in the same way issues were disregarded on the way up. So the market is functioning just fine.

Le Pain Quotidien, 382 Greenwich Avenue

2009-06-18T17:43:00.015-04:00

It looks like the communal table, good espresso, and dark chocolate of this Belgian chain of franchised bakeries/restaurants may grace the Avenue in the not too distant future. I understand that plans for the space are making their way through Town Hall now.

382 Greenwich Avenue on a rainy day.

The bistro says it sources organic ingredients whenever it can, both to develop long lasting relationships with organic farmers, and crucially to ensure the highest quality ingredients. That sounds like a practical approach that will go over well in Greenwich. And you can bring the kids too.

18 Bowman Drive: Another Market Opportunity

2009-06-16T06:43:00.010-04:00

If you don't mind living beside a 114 foot high and 50 foot in diameter water storage tank, here is a market opportunity:

18 Bowman Drive in King Merritt Acres (1 acre zoning) was built new in 2006/07; has never been occupied; and remains unsold. It will be going to highest and best bid on June 29th. The builder likely has over $2.2mln into the property. The land was purchased on Oct 2005 for $975,000 and 4,300sqft (per tax card) of living space was built, which, at $300/sqft, equals $1.29ml or all-in cost of $2.265ml. The house itself offers much: 5bd/4.1ba, in approximately 5,000sqft (builder #) of "new construction" and a wrap-around porch. There is even land to build a pool. But again, there is that water tower.

The property is currently listed at $1,688,995, which is down from the original list of $2,695,000 in Feb 2007. The property will go to highest and best bid over a minimum that the list agent will announce. Summary, tough location; nice house. What will it clear for in this market?

20 Corrigan Lane Progress & Pictures

2009-06-10T16:10:00.012-04:00

I posted this in the wrong place and have recomposed the post here:
http://20corriganlane.blogspot.com/

Pemberwick Sale & What you get for $500k In Greenwich

2009-05-29T11:22:00.015-04:00

10 Pemberwick Rd closed yesterday for $500,000 after a mere 35 days on the market. Kudos to the seller and the List Agent, Patti Meyer. These parties were not playing around. The property was listed at $545,000 and the agent noted in the list sheet that the property was priced for "quick sale."

This sale gives us our third sale in the Pemberwick area and the Hamilton Avenue School district this year and establishes a decent benchmark for what to expect for $500k. Based on the sales data (see table below) one gets a two bedroom, two bathroom, 1,400sqft house on 0.14 acres. Based on my viewings of these properties, the appliances and fixtures are functional, but dated. Two of the three sales are located on double yellow line streets, which means moderate to high traffic flow (or at least more traffic than on single or no line streets).

Not long ago, there were no single-family properties for sale under $500k. A client and I looked and waited for two years (2005-2007) to find one. We had no no luck. The client finally bought a multi-family, where she could offset the higher cost with rental income. Now there have been three sales in Pemberwick and at least two others in Byram. Greenwich is becoming more affordable.

Foreclosure Watch: 30 Curt Terrace

2009-05-23T13:02:00.008-04:00

I wasn't surprised to see the foreclosure sale notice in the local paper for this property in Glenville (Western Greenwich). The house sits on 0.36acre at the end of a cul-de-sac. The property itself slopes gently down from the road grade until it drops-offs a cliff near its rear boundary. I'm not sure if the drop off is part of this property or the neighbors, and while a simple fence will protect little ones from going down the hill, this is not all usable, kid-friendly land.

This is one of those houses that sticks with me after what seems like a couple years since I saw it. The house offers 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms and over 3,800sqft according to the builder. My recollection is that the house layout is choppy and flow through the rooms is poor. The space is inefficient and poorly designed. Is this what happens when non-pros get into the real estate development business and get caught on the downside of a correction?

Either way, the property will have to sell at less than the $1.289mln that the owner was asking back in December '08. After the house at 35 Glenville St (see picture #2) sold for $1.025mln in Dec. '08, you would have thought this guy would have lowered his price into the 9s. But it may have been too late by then.

According to the notice in the Greenwich Time, the foreclose sale is May 30, at noon.

49 Hillside Dr. vs 477 Riversville Rd.: Comparing $4+mln Sales

2009-05-19T16:15:00.015-04:00

Table 1.

These two properties closed within $300,000 of each other a day apart.

Table 1 contains selected data from the purchase, build and sales of the properties.

If I assume no change in the land values, the two properties sold around +/- $310/sqft plus the original land cost. Its a safe bet that the land values dropped.

If I take a different tack and assume a $350/sqft price (and assume lower level finished space sells for half of above grade living area), the land value for Hillside and Riversville drop to $1.52ml and $1.64ml respectively, or -23% and -9% of purchase price. It seems odd that the Riversville land would decline less than the Hillside property. But maybe the nearly 5 1/2 acres at Riversville buoyed the price, because I don't think the house did.

I consider the layout and configuration of the Riversville house poor to middling--shallow room depth on main floor; confusing and inefficient space layout in master; non-practical/functional elements--a fireplace in master bedroom seems to be inches from what looked like the only place the master bed could go. Greenwich has enough hot heads without builders trying to create more. Hillside is better designed and built structure, while Riversville has better piece of land.

Table 2.

Another point of interest, at least to me, and contributing factor to sale price is that the list agent for Riversville was not local and she represented both sides of the sale. In Greenwich Non-local agents frequently bring buyers who overpay for property. Second, if an agent represents both sides of a sale, there is always a chance that the property owner will get a discount on RE commision and net greater proceeds.

6 Irvine Sells for $1.14ml OR 3 years waiting and a 33% price reduction

2009-05-15T09:41:00.006-04:00

I saw this sale notice on the MLS this morning and wondered if the wait was worth it for the owner. This shore colonial, that's what the list agent calls it, came on the market June 15, 2006. After nearly 3 years and 4 price reductions, from $1.699mln to a last list of $1.347mln, the property closed today at $1,143,500.

And talk about commitment, the owner stayed with the same agent over the whole period! I'm sure both parties are glad to move on.

98 Bottles of Beer, Houses for Sale and Rent, on the Wall

2009-04-10T09:00:00.030-04:00

Below are details of the 98 single-family properties both for sale and rent in Greenwich at the end of March 2009 (of 660 single-family for sale). The properties are grouped by section of town and ranked by their Rent/Sale ratio (the annualized rent rate divided by the asking sale price, or what I like to call, a modified cap rate). The average rent/sale ratio for a given section is marked by a dotted line.

If I were looking to buy, I'd pay some attention to the properties with the higher Rent/Sale ratio and determine if there was a mispricing issue. If the rents are credible, these properties could offer a good value buying opportunity.

If I were looking to rent, I'd look at properties at the lower end of the scale for good rental value. Of course there are a number of reasons that a high value property might rent at a relatively low rate. Three reasons that quickly come to mind: 1. a collapsing real estate market; 2. a property that has additional developable land, which adds sale value, but less rental value; and 3. property management expenses passed-on to tenant outside the rent rate.

Greenwich single-family properties both for sale and rent:

Old Greenwich single-family properties both for sale and rent:

Riverside single-family properties both for sale and rent:

Cos Cob single-family properties for both sale and rent:

Analysis of Homes both for Sales and Rent, and Future Prices

2009-04-04T10:59:00.077-04:00

Many people are struggling with determining value and sale prices of properties in the current market. So I figured I would take a look at single-family homes, which have been or are currently listed both for sale and rent, and see if the rent and sale information and the relation between the two can tell me anything about future single-family prices.

Based on my analysis, the average price of single-family active listings in Greenwich has to drop between 30% to 38% to match the rent and sale ratios of single-family properties sold this year through the end of March. The median price of active single-family properties has to drop 23%.

98 of more than 660 single-family properties were listed as both for sale and rent at the end of March or about 1 in 6 1/2 properties. A summary of the average asking rents and list prices of the 98 properties, broken down by section of town, is found in Table 1 (note that the Grand Averages are calculated by column and do not add-up across rows).

Eight of twenty-six single-family sales this year through the end of March were listed as both for sale and rent. A summary of the eight properties is in Table 1a.

While the 98 active listings are a decent sample, the 8 sales are less so. But it is the best available; so I'll work with it. The results of applying the number of years rent for which a property sold (the "Sale/Rent" ratio) and the modified capitalization rate ("Rent/Sale" ratio where gross rents are divided by sale price) of the sold properties to the active listings are in Table 1b.

The total average asking rent for all active single-family listings here is $130,779 per year. The average single-family home sold at 19.63 times its annual rent (those rents are a combination of either last ask rent, actual rent in place immediately prior to sale, or new ask rent rate in cases where property sold in '09 and was put back on market for rent). At 19.63 times the total average asking rent, the average active single-family listing would sell at 30% less than the current average ask price, or $2.57mln rather than $3.65mln.

The properties that sold year to date have an average 5.75% modified capitalization rate. Applying this average modified cap rate to the average active rent of $130,779, we get a $2.28mln value. This amount is 38% lower than the $3.65mln current average active list price. Active listings would have to drop 38% to achieve the same capitalization rate as year-to-March sales (for these exercises that rents are kept constant).

As a check, I present an analysis of the median data below. Median active asking rent for single-family houses for both sale and rent is $107,100 per year or $8,925 per month. Single-family properties sold this year through March closed at a median price of $1.81mln, at 19.17 times annual rent and at a median modified cap rate of 5.22%. The median active listing price would have to come down 23% to match year-to-date sale and rent ratios.

While I focus the analysis on single-family prices here, the rent to sale numbers above seem to indicate that renting may be a good financial decision for a while longer. I mean is it a wise financial decision to buy a property that sells at 28 times current ask rents? I'll look into rents in a future post.

Byram Shubert Library Opens

2009-03-29T13:45:00.006-04:00

This is great news for the Western side of town as well as for all Greenwichites who take advantage of this resource. Here is the article from the local paper announcing the opening.

Greenwich has one of the best library systems in the country and my family and I are happy to have access to it.

6 Ernel Dr - Sale Under $1.0mln

2009-03-29T12:56:00.005-04:00

This well maintained and presented property on a cul-de-sac off Sound Beach Avenue Ext in Riverside sold for $750,000 Friday. This sale is a good pointer to value below the $1.0mln mark.

The property previously sold for $792,000 in June 2005. It was relisted for sale in March '08 for $850,000. The owner lowered the list price to $770,000 in Feb '09 and it went to contract shortly after.

I like Ernel Drive. Its a cul-de-sac of 7 houses and offers a low-traffic environment for residents with young children to stroll safely. The street has not been overbuilt and maintains a scale and balance that I find attractive. The 50s-era Capes sit well on their sites and from the several houses I've been in, the houses have been upgraded over the years and well maintained. It makes a difference when all houses on a street are in the same good condition.

The house itself sits on a flat 0.14acres and has a nice backyard enclosed by a decorative fence. It is not a large house, but at nearly 1,500sqft with 3bedrooms and 2 baths, it offers more than an apartment in the City or most condos in town. Plus it gets good light, has new appliances and infrastructure. It is a skip to the Post Road, I-95 and two skips to the Old Greenwich train station. Overall the property offers much.

154 Cognewaugh Rd - One Down (almost)

2009-03-26T16:54:00.005-04:00

Looks like Greenwich will have one less spec house on the market. This property in Cos Cob went to contract today. The last list price was $3.150mln, which is down 36% from the original asking price of $4.895mln back in July 2007.

Crunching the numbers, the developer bought the property for $1.4mln (3 years ago) and then built 5,234sqft above grade (7,743sqft including finished space below grade). If I assume $300sqft build cost on above grade area, we get $1,570,200 build cost. When we add land cost, we get $2,970,200 or pretty much breakeven at this point (considering RE commissions and fees). When we add in 3 years of financing costs, it would seem the developer walks away with a loss.

By the way, the property was developed by Santora Brothers LLC and built by Pecora Brothers. These guys have been in the business a while and do a solid job.

80 Perkins Rd and Yankee Baseball

2009-03-26T08:54:00.003-04:00

Sounds like the recently hired NY Yankee first baseman, Mark Teixeira purchased this property.

The team website also notes that, "By committing to a eight-year, $180 million contract, Teixeira is in New York for the long haul. His wife, Leigh, is busily moving into a new home in Greenwich, Conn.,...".

Congratulations to the family and welcome to Greenwich.

17 Marshall: Hmmmm?

2009-03-25T10:44:00.013-04:00

I'm stumped. After undergoing what sounds like a major renovation in 2007, this property came on the market in February '08 for $895,000. It didn't sell. Today, a year later, the property is back on the market and voila, the price is $995,000. As far as I can tell from the property listing, nothing has been done to upgrade the property since the last listing.

So, help me. How does one rationalize a $100,000 price increase during one of the worst years in Greenwich real estate in decades? I know, I'm getting on thin ice when I start asking about a rationale for pricing, but someone has to do it. Maybe after I see the property at the Broker open house, I can shed some light on this puzzle. Who knows, maybe the property was severely under priced last go round and the market missed this opportunity.

80 Perkins Rd

2009-03-24T16:23:00.004-04:00

Word on the street is that this property sold to a professional baseball player fresh from signing a $180mln contract. Nice house by a good builder. Sale price was $6.70mln or +/-16% off the list of $7.95mln. The property sold yesterday, but went to contract in Jan '09 about 2 1/2 months after being listed for sale--that's darn good! For background, the developer purchased the property in Nov '07 for $2.695mln.

Continuing Tale of Woe on Greenwich Avenue

2009-03-20T11:59:00.007-04:00

I posted on this subject on March 3, and today there is this article from Bloomberg detailing the sorry state of affairs on Greenwich Avenue.

As Queen would say, another one bites the dust, or so it looks with commercial property in town.

21 Bobolink Ln: What it takes to sell

2009-03-16T12:34:00.007-04:00

The owner of this property figured how to deal with the market: sell at 28% off your last list price and 44% off your first list price in May 2007. The $5.0mln sale price would allow you to downsize into an attractive townhouse or condominium in the center of town, in the event those are your plans, and you would still have some change left over.

I find it noteworthy that the seller is a professional real estate owner and investor. I expect this experience helped him close at a price significantly lower than he originally anticipated.

Greenwich Single Family Sales Under $500,000

2009-03-16T10:10:00.011-04:00

Given the nose-dive the local market is taking, I would have thought we'ld have seen some sales below $500,000. 7 Windy Knolls sold today and it turns out this 2 bed/2 bath Cape is the first. Then again there have been only 16 sales year to date.

If my recollection is correct, the house is a real fixer-upper or in other times a teardown. The land is flat to gently sloping to the street level, which means easy access and easy to build on.

Here is some perspective on single family sales below $500,000.

(Click on image to enlarge)

880 Jobs Lost = How Many Houses for Sale?

2009-03-15T09:14:00.007-04:00

The local paper writes that 880 Greenwich residents lost their jobs during 2008. The prospects are that the worst is ahead and the town will see accelerating unemployment through the end of the year, according to a Yale economist and CT Dept of Labor researcher quoted in the article.

So how many properties will be put on the market to be sold as residents deal with these new financial constraints? And who will buy them? Who knows, but more inventory will certainly increase leverage for buyers and reduce it for sellers.

So far this year, 25 residential properties (single family and condominiums) sold. That leaves about 600 single family homes and the 200-odd condominium units on the market. Talk about a growing imbalance in supply and demand. I expect the rate of property price declines will pick-up dramatically over the coming months.

Approaching 1999 Prices: 7 Gisborne Place

2009-03-13T12:57:00.008-04:00

This sale caught my attention today; it closed closer to its sale in 1999 than to anything more recent.

The history is that the property sold in April 1999 for $1.81mln. It was then significantly renovated in 2006 and sold in Jan 2007 for $2.86mln. It went to contract in the end of Feb '09 and closed yesterday at $2.2mln.

It looks like a relo company took position of the property since the 2007 sale, but sheesh and in Old Greenwich too!

Summer Rentals Going Down: 181 Clapboard Ridge

2009-03-13T12:19:00.010-04:00

I wonder what happened to the Spring Market? Today the rent rate for this property was dropped nearly 50% from $15,000 to $8,000 p.m.. The list price was reduced 20% from $ 7,995,000 to 6,395,000, but that isn't all that startlingly now is it.

Cloudy Condos: 17 Condos Missing Basic Data

2009-03-07T16:57:00.010-05:00

Of 186 active condo listings on the multiple listing service in town, there is no property tax or list history for 17 of these (see table below). Does this make a difference to a Buyer? I come down on the side of more rather than less transparency in real estate sales. In the current environment with all its uncertainty, why would a seller add more uncertainty to the sale/purchase process by withholding or not providing basic data that 90% of the market provides?

If I were a buyer looking at properties without tax and list history data, I would at least discuss the absence of the data with my agent. Who knows where that may lead.

Greenwich Commercial Property: Another Shoe to Drop?

2009-03-03T19:55:00.000-05:00

Based on my trips around town, there is a rapidly growing quantity of vacant retail and office space in Greenwich. Here are pictures I took this morning. I could have taken many more. But there were too many vacant spaces and the drivers behind me did not appreciate my slow driving.

As a property owner or prospective property owner in town, I would be alert to how the deteriorating commercial market, in conjunction with plummeting residential sales, will impact the Town budget and property taxes. It would seem to me that the forward buget shortfall could easily be a multiple of the $8mln shortfall in the 2009/2010 Town budget. In hindsight the "tough choices" Town officials made to close that gap may look like childs play when the Town gets to the 2010/11 budget.

Greenwich Avenue

East Putnam Avenue (and area)

West Putnam Avenue (and area)

Railroad Avenue

Delevan Avenue

Glenville Street

On a pleasant note, there have been some new business openings (or at least name changes)

Plus women's retailer, Madewell, sister company of J. Crew, opened a store on Greenwich Avenue yesterday. I hope their business flourishes, but I'm not sure if $115 jeans and t-shirts will continue to be a wardrobe staple in the near future (but then I wear Levi 501 jeans; so take what I say on current fashion demand and style with a grain of salt).

And we have another planned opening:

Greenwich Sellers Love Out-of-Town Agents: 340 Valley Rd

2009-02-27T15:26:00.000-05:00

Unit 5 at Valley Ridge sold today for $2.36mln after 447 days on market. The unit was the model home for this new condo development by Greyrock Company at 340 Valley Road. The original list price was $2.7mln. Interestingly, this is the second sale in this 10 unit development. So there are eight units left. And the first sale was for $2.3mln in July '08.

Congratulations to Greyrock! But I am not surprised this was sold by an out-of-town agent (Norwalk per sales records). Over the years, I've been stumped by sales on several occasions and often find that the buyer has been represented by an out-of-town agent. This is another one.

January 2009 Residential Market Summary

2009-02-27T11:29:00.000-05:00

Click on image to view

BTO said it well, you ain't seen nothing yet!

Nude Sales

2009-02-26T08:59:00.000-05:00

No its not a new technique Greenwich agents are using to entice sales, but it is something increasingly fashionable in Italy. Property rich, cash poor senior Italians sell their homes but retain right to live in them until they (the homeowner) dies. These types of sales have more than doubled over the last year to 40,000 in 2008.

To each his own, but I wouldn't be comfortable waiting and wishing for someone to die inorder to occupy my new home. But then nothing like a good crisis to focus the mind and generate new solutions to what I expect is a growing issue--property rich, cash poor seniors seeking to live-out their final days in their homes and not in "assisted living facilities".

Day Trip from Greenwich: Mohawk Mountain Ski Area

2009-02-10T08:36:00.001-05:00

If you're looking for a bit of winter fun not too far from Greenwich, Mohawk Mountain Ski area in beautiful Northwest Connecticut is a charm.

The ski area is in Cornwall and travel time from my place in West Greenwich is about 1 1/2hrs. The mountain is a great place for skiing with the little ones or for the older of us getting our ski legs back.

On the way back to Greenwich, if you want to treat yourself and the kids or pick-up a little something special for those who stayed home, try the Belgique Patisserie and Chocolatier, a nifty chocolate shop, in the town of Kent. You can get some great espresso or handmade chocolates, but the hot chocolate is considered some of the best in New England.

Enjoy!

Comp Killer: 114 Overlook Closes Below 2004 Sale

2009-02-09T15:22:00.000-05:00

This nice property in the Milbrook area just sold at less than the price of its last two sales dating back to September 2004.

114 Overlook Drive, Greenwich

Sale: $1.625mln in Sept. 2004

Buy: $ 1.896mln in August 2007

Original List: $1.990mln in Dec. 2008

Recent Sale: $1.550mln in Feb 2009

18% less than 2008 sale;

22% less than Original List Price

What a market! The property went to contract one month after being listed and still sold at a 22% discount to the original list price. Smells like a cash buyer. And I understand that there are more of them in the market with each passing day.

Comp Killer: Byram Condo Sale

2009-02-08T13:08:00.000-05:00

This condomimium unit sold in January below the previous sale price.

19 Church Street West, Unit 4, Byram (Greenwich)

GMLS#: 71129
Previous Buy: $184,000 Nov 19, '04
Original List: $179,000 Sept. 29, '08

Sale: $172,500 on Jan. 27 '09

6.25% off 2004 sale

4% off original list price

2009 Greenwich Condo Market: 9 to 14 Month Inventory

2009-02-05T22:16:00.000-05:00

There was between 14 and 9 months condo inventory on the market in Greenwich at the start of this year depending on whether one uses 2008 or 2007 sales. Either way the numbers are significantly higher than the +/-3 months inventory over the boom years.

Breaking the inventory down by price range, there are over 9 months inventory across all price ranges except the lowest at 2008 sales. There is more than 12 months inventory at all ranges above $800,000. Above $2.5mln there is between 4 to 6 years worth of inventory. Do these higher end units become rentals; sell at steep discounts; become feeding stations and lottery kiosks for real estate agents on Tuesday and Thursdays for years to come; or get bought at asking by groups of Chinese on prepackaged tours of the US looking to take advantage of the local value proposition? Who knows? But based on the inventory levels, I expect prices at the higher end to decline at greater rates than prices in the lower ranges where there is less inventory. I expect price declines across the board in the current year.

Below $299,000 there is 3 months inventory. As the local market continues to correct, I expect more inventory moving into the lower price ranges. Heck with the way the market is correcting, the town may not have to build low-income housing.

In case 2008 sales are an anomaly, we can use 2007 sales, which closely match the median number of units sold during the last 10 years (206 vs 208 units). At 2007 sales, months inventory levels decrease. There remain over six month inventory across all but the two lowest price ranges. More critically there are 21 month inventory in both the $1.5 to 2.49 and $2.5 to $3.49 ranges; and there is 4 years worth of inventory above $5mln.

Granted the top-end of the condo market is minuscule; there were a total of 15 units sold in 2007 for $2.5mln or greater. But we know that a good part of the high-end condo market demand has been driven by empty-nesters seeking to downsize and relocate to central Greenwich. Some of this group is hamstrung by its inability to sell just as fresh inventory has come on line to meet what appeared to be growing demand. Then there is the decline demand from the financial service and hedge fund set. Developers may not be breaking ground on new speculative developments, but inventory will come on the market as part of the natural buy/sell cycle. As far as I can tell, sales continue to decline at a greater rate than new inventory. So how much inventory will pile-up during the bottoming out of the market? More importantly will the market over-correct on the downside in the same way it over-inflated on the upside? Time will tell and I'll keep you posted.

A note on methodology, month inventory is underestimated in this analysis as sales data includes both private/FSBO and broker-assisted sales, while active listings do not include private/FSBO listings.

Condo Market: Sales By Price '07/'08

2009-02-05T19:28:00.000-05:00

In the Condo Market Summary 2007 vs 2008, we saw that Greenwich condo unit and volume sales were down 36% and 43% respectively from 2007. Breaking down these sales by price class, we see significant double digit declines across all price ranges with the exception of the top and bottom (Over $5.0mln and Under $300k, which jointly account for less than 6% of the condo market). Click on images to enlarge.

Unit sales are down 88%, 71%, 45%, 43%, 40%, 27%, 27% and 15% across eight of the 10 ranges and these declines are nearly matched by volume sale declines. The declines look as out of whack as the increases looked during the boom period. But with the general economic situation and with Wall Street and financial sector employment (among others) getting decimated, prospects for a significant improvement in the Greenwich property market seems slim in the near term. But how low can we go?

In the hardest hit price ranges, unit and volume sales declined nearly 90%, in the $3.5 to $4.99mln range, and just over 70%, for the $2.5 to $3.49mln range. It is not a lot of units: five (5) fewer units sold in the $2.5 to 3.49mln range, and 7 fewer units in the $3.5 to $4.99mln range. But the drop in these sales is $45mln or nearly half of the $94 mln total volume decline from 2007 to 2008 ($218mln to $124mln ). There ain't many of them, but they sure pack a wallop!

What does this mean for condo buyers or sellers? Before I get ahead of myself, I want to check out inventory levels. I’ll be back once I do.

Greenwich Comp Killers, Single Family

2009-02-04T21:25:00.000-05:00

Hat tip to New Jersey Real Estate Report for the format; I'll borrow it. Here are Greenwich homes that recently sold for less than their previous sale. So if you're looking to sell or buy, the fresher the comp the better. These are fresh.

14 River Lane, Cos Cob

GMLS # 70384
BUY:12.08.04 for $1,570,000

Original List Date & Price: 3.19.08 $1,795,000

Sold: 2.03.09 for $900,000

43% off 2004 sale price

50% off Original List Price

35 Glenville Street, Glenville (West Greenwich)
GMLS# 68631

BUY: 12.20.02 for $1,106,000

Original List Price: 03/25/08 $1,475,000

SOLD: 12.11.08 for $1,025,000

7.3% off 2002 sale price

30.5% off 2008 Original List Price

Controlling Our Tax Rate: Town to Lay off 70

2009-02-04T09:51:00.000-05:00

The Town of Greenwich announces it will reduce non-school work force by 7% (70 employees). First Selectman Peter Tesei said the decision comes down to a choice of cutting positions or raising taxes beyond the customary 2 to 4 percent annual increase that residents have come to expect. He opposes the latter.

Kudos to First Selectman Peter Tesei and crew; and condolences to those who lose their jobs. We are in this together. I think this a tough but prudent step given the current and projected budget shortfalls.

Greenwich Condo Market 2008 vs 2007

2009-02-01T17:41:00.000-05:00

The number and dollar volume of all condominiums sales (private and brokered) in
Greenwich declined dramatically in 2008 compared to 2007. Unit and volume sales declined 36% and 43% respectively.

(Click on Table to enlarge)

The median condominium sale price declined a less dramatic 1.3%, while the average price declined 11% compared to last year.

The functional characteristics of condos remained relatively constant year over year. The median number of bedrooms and bathrooms remained at 2 and 2.1 respectivley. The median unit size increased 4.4% from the prior year to 1,662sqft from 1,592sqft.

Finally, there is just over 14 months inventory of condominiums for sale in Greenwich using 2008 sales and the amount of active inventory at January 1, 2009 . In the near future, I'll provide an analysis of condo inventory by price point.