Greenwich Residential Market Review: Unit Volume 2000 - 2009

The pinch, or returning to a more stable, well functioning real estate market.

I like the pinch!

Take My Breath Away - 9 Sales and 3 Contracts

It may not seem like much, but the sales volume reported today nearly matches the monthly sales in each of December, January and February, which were 13, 9, and 10 respectively. Its been a long time since we've seen this amount of sales in one day.

After that moment of surprise, I looked at single family inventory that has come on the market since the beginning of the year and what has happened to it (see tables below). I'm trying to get some insight into the inventory build-up. The abundance and increasing amount of inventory combined with the sparse sale and contract volume indicates a deteriorating market and I would think continued price depreciation across the board. I'll look at the half year data in more detail over the next weeks and post accordingly.











Note: Data below the "Brought to Market" numbers relate specifically to sales, contracts, withdrawn, etc. of single family properties listed on or after January 1 or April 1 as the case may be.

15 North Crossway: Valuation Watch

I'll watch this property to determine what has happened with property values in prime Old Greenwich waterfront locations.

The property was bought new in May 2004 for $3,925,000 and listed for sale today at $7,195,000 or 83% above last sale. At 5,334 sqft, according to the list sheet, the property sold at $736/sqft while the current ask is $1,349/sqft.

ht: forwhatitsworth for 2004 photo.

Foreclosure Watch: 46 Bowman Drive

This property was forclosed upon in January 2009. The outstanding mortgage then was $688,000. The purchasor and current owner paid Washington Mutual Bank $860,000 for the property in February.

This history is indicative of what is happening throughout town though not captured in the GMLS database, by many agents or the local newspaper. As a sidebar kudos to Zillow and other sites that manage to capture this data and make it publicly available (I, on the other hand, rummaged through Town Hall records to find it). For a property buyer or seller this type of data is relevant for determing market value and useful for establishing list or offer pricing. I expect that a property appraiser would look at these distressed sales comps in determing an appraisal value to support Bank financing, so I figure a real estate agent should also.

This 4bedroom, 3 bath, 3,266sqft modified Cape was listed for $1.295mln in April '04 and went to contract less than a month later. The sale closed in July 2004 for $1.280 (see house as it was in 2004 to the left).

After upgrades which included a new septic, driveway, hardwood floors, Kitchen countertop and appliances, and new baths, according to the list sheet, the property was relisted in July 2007 for $2.475mln. The listing expired in October 2008 asking $1.495mln.

The party that purchased the property in 2004 secured a Pay-Option-ARM to finance the purchase. The loan principal was $1.15mln or 90% of purchase price. In this type of mortgage the borrow could roll the interest payment into the loan principal up to a cap, which in this case was 115% of the original principal or $1,322,500 before they had to start paying. The same party secured a Personal Line of Credit for $150,000. So no wonder the borrower didn't want to sell for less than $1,472,500 (the total of the Maximum principal plus the line of credit).

Welcome Back 2001: 126 Cat Rock

This property sold new in June 2001 for $3.595mln. It closed today for $3.20mln after almost one year on the market. It was listed in July 2008 for $4.15mln.

I expect one of the reason this house did not sell for more is the proximity of the house on the back lot. In my experience any hair on a project will be discounted heavily in a declining market, in the same way issues were disregarded on the way up. So the market is functioning just fine.

Greenwich Single Family Sales Under $500,000

Given the nose-dive the local market is taking, I would have thought we'ld have seen some sales below $500,000. 7 Windy Knolls sold today and it turns out this 2 bed/2 bath Cape is the first. Then again there have been only 16 sales year to date.

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If my recollection is correct, the house is a real fixer-upper or in other times a teardown. The land is flat to gently sloping to the street level, which means easy access and easy to build on.

Here is some perspective on single family sales below $500,000.

(Click on image to enlarge)

January 2009 Residential Market Summary

Click on image to view

BTO said it well, you ain't seen nothing yet!