A Glance: Single Family and Market Unit Volume Analysis, Half Year and 2Q

Good news: properties sold and to contract in Q2 (April 1 - June 30) are not falling as fast as they have been since the start of the market correction.

Bad news: there was a significant and rapid increase in inventory in the second quarter of 2009 just as sales began to pick-up, or at least not fall as rapidly as they had since 2007.

Click on a chart to enlarge
































Data source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service

Take My Breath Away - 9 Sales and 3 Contracts

It may not seem like much, but the sales volume reported today nearly matches the monthly sales in each of December, January and February, which were 13, 9, and 10 respectively. Its been a long time since we've seen this amount of sales in one day.

After that moment of surprise, I looked at single family inventory that has come on the market since the beginning of the year and what has happened to it (see tables below). I'm trying to get some insight into the inventory build-up. The abundance and increasing amount of inventory combined with the sparse sale and contract volume indicates a deteriorating market and I would think continued price depreciation across the board. I'll look at the half year data in more detail over the next weeks and post accordingly.











Note: Data below the "Brought to Market" numbers relate specifically to sales, contracts, withdrawn, etc. of single family properties listed on or after January 1 or April 1 as the case may be.

Glenville T-Mobile Cell Towers

Here's a public service announcement related to the proposed new cell towers in Glenville from a District 9 RTM and Pemberwick/Glenville Neighborhood Association member, and one who diligently works to mobilize the Western side of town to participate in public affairs.

*********************************************************
Neighbors,

My apologies for failing to include in the news blast yesterday the clearly understood concern about the T-Mobile proposal to install a "Cell Tower" (actually 2 antennas) in a potentially dangerous location in Glenville.

Glenville School PTA co-presidents Donna Curtis and Gina Furano have a good job of informing all residents of the concern that this installation is much too close to Glenville School. And Schools PTA Council President, Glenville resident Sue Rodgers has led the global charge against cellphone transmission installations in close proximity to any schools.

The point of this message is the same as for other concerns - Public input can make difference. Our citizen-based Town government provides opportunity for the public to be heard, and in fact, to guide decisions. Reportedly, the last two P&Z hearings on the Cell Town proposed near No. Mianus School produced SRO crowds, and the P&Z voted unanimously to recommend another location be sought for that one.

Unlike the No. Mianus proposal, the Glenville installation can actually be killed by a P&Z decision. However, P&Z has an obligation to consider the proposal fairly, so it is critical that they are faced again by a packed house. The public hearing is on the P&Z agenda for Tues. July 7, beginning at 7 pm.

Please attend if you can, and if you can't I will record email comments and pass them on to the P&Z.

[text removed by editor]

Pasted below for convenience is the "calendar" (including one date correction) for PGA Citizen input.

Great day :)

Vin


Glenville T-Mobile installation - P&Z Public Hearing, Tues. July 7, 7 pm - Town Hall Meeting Room

Variances for CVS/Bank/Office at Holly Hill Hole - PZBA Public Hearing, Weds. July 8, 8 pm - Town Hall Cone Room

Sale of Town land parcel along Holly Hill Hole - Board of Selectmen, Thurs. July 9, 10 am - Town Hall Meeting Room

Sneak Peak at Lolita Restaurant, Byram

Here are some pictures of the soon to be opened Lolita, Cocina & Tequila Bar in Byram. This is one of the CB5 restaurant group's ventures; they run Baang Cafe locally. Jody Pennette, the group's chief executive, says it will be a trendy Mexican restaurant. I hope they manage to provide good food and value as well. We'll see.

The restaurant is in the space formerly occupied by That Little Italian Restaurant; its a good space with an offstreet brick patio. The painter I bumped into while taking these pictures said Lolita may open within a week.

Entry and dining area

Tequila Bar

Facade & Street View

It looks like the corridor from the corner of North Main and Mill Street in Port Chester along Delavan Avenue, Byram is becoming food alley: The Kneaded Bread, Mario Batali and Joe Bastianich's trattoria down the street at the Tarry Lodge and now Lolita.

I think the improvement of services along this corridor will help real estate values in Byram as the gentrification process continues.

15 North Crossway: Valuation Watch

I'll watch this property to determine what has happened with property values in prime Old Greenwich waterfront locations.

The property was bought new in May 2004 for $3,925,000 and listed for sale today at $7,195,000 or 83% above last sale. At 5,334 sqft, according to the list sheet, the property sold at $736/sqft while the current ask is $1,349/sqft.

ht: forwhatitsworth for 2004 photo.

Foreclosure Watch: 46 Bowman Drive

This property was forclosed upon in January 2009. The outstanding mortgage then was $688,000. The purchasor and current owner paid Washington Mutual Bank $860,000 for the property in February.

This history is indicative of what is happening throughout town though not captured in the GMLS database, by many agents or the local newspaper. As a sidebar kudos to Zillow and other sites that manage to capture this data and make it publicly available (I, on the other hand, rummaged through Town Hall records to find it). For a property buyer or seller this type of data is relevant for determing market value and useful for establishing list or offer pricing. I expect that a property appraiser would look at these distressed sales comps in determing an appraisal value to support Bank financing, so I figure a real estate agent should also.

This 4bedroom, 3 bath, 3,266sqft modified Cape was listed for $1.295mln in April '04 and went to contract less than a month later. The sale closed in July 2004 for $1.280 (see house as it was in 2004 to the left).

After upgrades which included a new septic, driveway, hardwood floors, Kitchen countertop and appliances, and new baths, according to the list sheet, the property was relisted in July 2007 for $2.475mln. The listing expired in October 2008 asking $1.495mln.

The party that purchased the property in 2004 secured a Pay-Option-ARM to finance the purchase. The loan principal was $1.15mln or 90% of purchase price. In this type of mortgage the borrow could roll the interest payment into the loan principal up to a cap, which in this case was 115% of the original principal or $1,322,500 before they had to start paying. The same party secured a Personal Line of Credit for $150,000. So no wonder the borrower didn't want to sell for less than $1,472,500 (the total of the Maximum principal plus the line of credit).

Salute to Veterans: June 27th, 11am